2024 Fantasy Football Do Not Draft List

1. Quarterbacks: Don’t overpay for a Star!

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• Reigning MVP Patrick Mahomes is coming off of a THIRD Super Bowl win in his still young career. However, Mahomes is currently going as QB2 in most mock drafts, way too high for Mahomes’ QB13 finish from last year.

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• CJ Stroud lit the world on fire in his rookie season, possibly one of the best inaugural seasons we've seen in recent years from a high-picked rookie QB. The downside of Stroud's game is he won't give team owners much running the ball which hurts his value compared to other QBs in his orbit that provide a dual-threat ability. On top of this Stroud’s value is through the roof right now, ultimately leading to an overdraft situation.

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• In the first preseason game, Caleb William looked like everything we’d expected plus more. His downside lies within his current Bears squad. An elite defense will tame down the heavy pass scenarios that most teams have to combat. With a stable of quality RBs as well, expect for Williams to flash but ultimately not be asked to do too much in his rookie season.

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• Aaron Rodgers's injury history. That should be the extent of the conversation but for all the Jets fans clamoring this is the year, you’d be better off taking the likes of Matthew Stafford or Geno Smith, who will still be available in your draft rounds after Rodgers is predicted to go.

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2. Running Backs: Stay away from Veterans!

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• Derrick Henry, in his age 30 season, finished last year as RB16 but is currently valued as RB10 in most mock drafts. Henry has never played with a rushing quarterback which will ultimately take away opportunities. While he may turn the clock back and shine in some games, I have no faith he will be available for 17 games or that he can put up a top-10 RB season.

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• One of the enigmas of Fantasy Football, Bijan Robinson is the carrot to dangle in front of eager players. I understand the appeal, the Falcons look to be able to consistently pass the ball more this year with Kirk Cousins, and Head Coach Arthur Smith is gone along with his confusing notion that Tyler Allgeier should be splitting carries with Robinson. However, the value simply isn't there for last year's RB17 to be going off the board as one of the top 3 RBs.

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• Josh Jacobs joined a new team this offseason and currently sits atop Green Bay’s depth chart as their starting RB. I’m not touching Jacobs with a ten-foot pole this year as the Packers still have AJ Dillon on the roster for goal line and power run touches. They also have MarShawn Lloyd sitting in the wings waiting for his crack at things. This reeks of a situation by the end of the year where Jacobs is outside the top 15 RBs.

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3. Wide Receivers: Don’t Overthink This

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• Stay away from Stefon Diggs! Last year’s WR18 entered a new team and will be splitting reps with established counterparts Nico Collins (WR8) and Tank Dell (WR13). After leaving the Bills reportedly due to disagreements over lack of targets, this situation does not bode well for future success. I’d avoid all the Texans players as it's a crapshoot amongst the three WRs as to who will succeed as well as the potential for the dreaded sophomore slump for QB CJ Stroud.

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• Last year the Ravens reinvented their offense under new OC Todd Monken. QB Lamar Jackson was thrilled to be throwing the ball more under last year's offense which led to the rise of rookie WR Zay Flowers who finished the year as WR33. That being said, I would avoid Ravens WRs like the plague this year. Part of last year’s offensive shift was due to personnel, TE Mark Andrews missed more than half the year due to injury and the offensive line was below average for what we've come to expect out of the Ravens. The return of Andrews plus the addition of key offensive line players and Derrick Henry leads me to assume a return to the typical Ravens offense we've come to expect over the years.

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• Drake London has astronomically high value at WR11 coming off a year in which he barely cracked the top 50 list, behind WRs like Kendrick Bourne and Bo Melton. Like with Bijan Robinson, I get the hype surrounding the Falcons however spending a top-five round pick on an unproven, potential bust after this season does not seem like the smart play.

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4. Tight Ends: If It Ain’t Broke Don’t Fix It!

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• I might be starting to sound like a broken record but again another Falcons player is wildly overrated based on past production. Kyle Pitts was supposed to be the next coming of Travis Kelce or so you'd think with all the hype surrounding him his rookie year. For three seasons now, Pitts has been certifiably a bust. I'm not banking on 37-year-old Kirk Cousins to drastically change that. Pitts has been TE 17 and 22 in past seasons however he’s going as high as TE5 in some mock drafts. Lose me with that, let your friends waste a high draft pick on Mr. Bust.

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• Isaiah Likely was one of last year’s waiver wire stars, subbing in for an injured Mark Andrews for most of the season. He finished as TE28, respectable for a rookie season in which he started about half the overall games. However, with Andrews back and fully healthy going into the season, a TE19 projection for Likely is way too high.

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• Leading up to this one, I'll start by saying when healthy TJ Hockenson is a bonafide top 5 TE. Hockenson, who tore his ACL mid-season last year, will miss at least half the current season recovering from injury. Coupled with the likely fact that by midseason rookie QB JJ McCarthy will be starting, puts Hockenson in the dubious spot of having close to no reps with a new QB and shaking off the injury rust. His current draft position is TE12 and I would gamble on any number of lower ranked TE’s who have the potential to play the whole year.

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