I hope everyone out there had a great Thanksgiving and is ready for three days of uninterrupted football. It’s rivalry week and the picks are red-hot for this holiday weekend. Let's make some turkey money and hammer the books this weekend!
I learned how bad Oregon State is the hard way, betting on them in a week where they scored a whopping 0 points against Air Force. Ashton Jeanty is well on his way to winning the Heisman at Boise State and the offense outside of Jeanty is sneaky good. Oregon State doesn't have a snowball's chance in hell of winning this game so I’m taking Boise State to win in a blowout starting off Friday.
Best Bet: Boise State -17.5
The first of many rivalry games to be played this weekend, the Rebels welcome Mississippi State into town for the Egg Bowl. Ole Miss is reeling after losing to Florida last weekend and also should be unmotivated after their playoff chances dwindled down to near zero following the loss. Don’t get me wrong, I’m not making this pick because I believe in Mississippi State. They’re arguably the worst team in the SEC this year, however if you look at their losses in SEC play few have been true blowouts. Personally I teased this line up to +28 to play the 4 touchdown angle. In a heated rivalry game, I simply don't see an Ole Miss blowout over 21 points. Gimme Mississippi State to cover in the Egg Bowl.
Best Bet: Mississippi State +25
This is a line I would advise hammering early in case it runs up to 7 or more before game time. We’re talking about juggernaut Texas in a must-win game to advance to the playoffs in an in-state rivalry matchup. Texas A&M has been hot and cold throughout the year but much like Ole Miss, their playoff chances have dwindled down to near an impossibility of making the playoffs. My calculus on this game is simple. One team (Texas) is far better on paper and has more to play for than their opponent. With less than a one score line, this should seem too easy in hindsight.
Best Bet: Texas -5
Well, there's always one line a week that makes absolutely no sense and it's definitely the Pitt/BC matchup this weekend. Granted, starting QB Eli Holstein is battling numerous injuries and seems to be trending toward not playing this week. However, last week against Clemson, backup QB Nate Yorell really had the game won before the Pitt defense gave up a last-minute 50-yard touchdown scramble. Do you mean to tell me the team that almost won against Clemson are underdogs to a Boston College that does nothing special? Yeah right, gimme Pittsburgh with the points but don't be shy about taking the moneyline. Pitt will most likely end up winning this game outright.
Best Bet: Pittsburgh +4.5
The common theme this week seems to be teams with playoff hopes to play for matched up against teams that got theoretically eliminated last week. Clemson/SC is always a heated battle more so than most rivalries so I’m not basing this pick on thinking South Carolina won’t show up to play. Make no mistake about it, they will be ready to travel to Death Valley on Saturday. Therein lies a key factor, Clemson will have the home-field advantage in a game they have to win to make the playoffs. This pick simply comes down to Clemson’s psychological edge coming into this game which I'm sure Dabo will be talking to his team all week about. There’s no path to playoff glory with a loss to their in-state rival so I'm riding with Clemson to clinch their berth beating the Gamecocks this weekend.
Best Bet: Clemson -3
I spoke about this Tulsa team in an article early this week about their new interim Head Coach, 30-year-old Ryan Switzer. This is arguably the worst matchup of the weekend, with two teams slumming it in the AAC basement. I think Tulsa will have a lot more to play for this week. Switzer was the recruiting coordinator under the previous coaching staff so the players should know him well and rally behind him in this prove-it game for Switzer. I’ve said it all year about FAU, they flat-out suck and have probably the worst collection of athletes in Division 1 football. I’m expecting Tulsa to come out ready to play for their young coach. Be on the lookout for a Tulsa blowout here in the last week of the season for both teams.
Best Bet: Tulsa -1.5
