Let me set the scene for the common fan who doesn't know the intricate details of the epic miscalculation the Michigan football team and NIL godfather Dave Portnoy have made over the past two weeks.
As alluded to in the title, the Michigan football program post-Harbaugh is currently languishing in quarterback purgatory. Harbaugh came in and resurrected the program from oblivion to a highly respected juggernaut mostly because he finally nailed the quarterback position down with eventual first-round pick JJ McCarthy.
It should be all smooth sailing from there right? Wrong.
Touted offensive coordinator Sherrone Moore took over for Harbaugh and the consensus opinion was that the offense was left in good hands and the defense would be the side of the ball to watch after not only losing Harbaugh but also defensive coordinator Jesse Minter to the NFL.
The 2024 season has been exactly the opposite through the midway point of the college football season for the Wolverines.
Through fall camp, QB’s Alex Orji and Davis Warren battled for the starting job with many thinking the extremely athletic Orji was primed to take the reins. Orji was McCarthy’s backup for the national championship run in 2023 and was hyped up by sources in the program as the next Cam Newton.
Well, Michigan coaches must’ve seen in fall camp what the world would later see which is that Orji couldn't hit water from a boat. I mean this guy really couldn't hit the broad side of a barn if his life depended on it. Purely lacks the ability to complete even basic, wide-open passes to his receivers.
Because of this revelation, former walk-on Davis Warren was surprisingly named the starter Week 1 for the Wolverines. The thought process tracks. Michigan always possesses a stout defense and the 6th year veteran QB should theoretically not be asked to do much offensively but protect the ball, move the chains, and let the defense win games. Simple enough right?
Warren started the first three games of the year going 2-1, amassing a paltry 144 yards per game and a 2 TD to 5 INT ratio. What made matters worse was the fact that the two wins against Fresno State and Arkansas State were close games late into the 4th quarter with a blowout loss to Texas at home wedged in between there. The straw that broke the camel's back for Warren was a 122-yard 3 INT performance against Arkansas State.
Orji was finally given a chance to start the next game against USC and he did lead the Wolverines to victory albeit without any inkling of a passing offense, finishing the game with… 32 passing yards. Orji got one more start with 94 passing yards before the coaching staff pulled the trigger on a third different starter.
Jack Tuttle, an experienced 6-year player who unlike Warren had previous game experience at Indiana, was brought in to right the ship against Washington. Well as the fanbase came to find out, Tuttle was recovering from surgery on his arm that by the Michigan coach's own admission left him at 75% of his previous arm talent ability. Not ideal.
Tuttle got two starts before his arm apparently gave out and retired forcing Michigan to turn back to Warren.
Now that the stage is set for the crux of the issue, this is when Coach Moore and Dave Portnoy may have made a move that will leave Michigan in this quarterback purgatory for the foreseeable future.
Clearly, Michigan needs new blood at the quarterback spot, and with new NIL and transfer rules it shouldn't be a problem right? Well, it wasn't before Michigan made the boneheaded move to go all-in on a high schooler who is committed to another school while also giving up all future leverage in future NIL negotiations by publicly announcing their price to bring a star QB to Ann Arbor.
For the 2025 recruiting class, Michigan had 4-star QB Carter Smith locked in and committed to the Wolverines seemingly on the path to righting the ship. Well, enter Bryce Underwood. Consensus #1 overall player and quarterback in the 2025 class who just so happens to hail from Michigan. If high school recruiting sources are to be believed this Underwood guy is the best thing since sliced bread.
The issue however is Underwood is firmly committed to LSU having gone through the recruiting process and chosen his school already. That didn’t stop big-time Michigan fan Dave Portnoy from announcing that he had been in contact with Coach Moore and the Michigan staff about donating NIL funds to bring a top quarterback to Michigan to the tune of a 3 million NIL contribution.
Neither Dave nor the Michigan staff outright came out and said it but for weeks the college football community read between the lines and noted an uptick in Michigan re-recruiting Underwood and possibly looking for a late flip.
Word of this on social media inevitably reached the ears of Carter Smith, remember him? The kid you had recruited for the position and undoubtedly promised to be “the guy”. Yeah, clearly he wasn't too happy to be hearing these rumors while the point was also made that surely the NIL package he negotiated wasn't anywhere close to the millions of dollars Dave Portnoy and Michigan are very publicly throwing at Underwood.
Well, Carter did what high school kids do at the drop of a dime these days. He decommitted from Michigan leaving the Wolverines without any high school QB commits to date and now Michigan is undeniably in a pickle.
The odds of flipping Underwood this late in the recruiting cycle are slim to none. Dave and Michigan may think the recent influx of NIL money means something but in the grand scheme of things if you don't think there are at least a dozen LSU alums with similar net worths and desire to see their program succeed then you're hopelessly naive.
Also with how public they have made their recruitment of Underwood, down to exact dollar figures of a potential offer, I’d be shocked to see any other 4 or 5-star high school quarterback asking for less than the public number. Simply would be bad business.
So now Michigan has made their bed and they'll have to lay in it at this point. I’d be shocked if they flipped Underwood or signed a major QB recruit out of high school this cycle due to the dynamics of the situation. Since Michigan has burned through all their QBs on the roster this year and none of them have shown the ability to contribute at the Power 4 level, they will undoubtedly have to bring in a handful of transfer QBs this offseason to fill the gap. That is far from ideal and again if I’m in the shoes of next year’s Cam Ward type of player looking to transfer and I know Michigan offered some unproven high schooler millions of dollars, well I’m surely asking for more. That is simply untenable for a D1 football program that has 90 roster spots to fill and everyone coming in knows what you are willing to give out in terms of a NIL package.
Michigan has dug a hole they'll have to spend years climbing out of and without a viable future quarterback in the pipeline, Michigan seems destined to be in quarterback purgatory for the foreseeable future.
